IMF Posts on Forex Blog
FX News Under the Radar
Jun 21, 2008
Some FX news you might have missed Friday.
1. IMF upgrades US growth to 2% for 2009.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) increased forecasts for US 2009 GDP growth to 2%. According to the IMF, The US downturn has been mitigated by well-timed fiscal stimulus, strong export growth, and healthy corporate balance sheets. However, the IMF warned of downside risks from "strains on household and bank finances, and now also by higher commodity prices."
Read the full release at the IMF
2. California Unemployment Hits 6.8%
California, hard hit by the housing crisis, hit a 2008 low in unemployment. Joblessness rose 0.6% month-over-month and was a full 1.5% higher than May 2007. The total number of unemployed came in at 1.26 million, up 300k year over year.
With the state facing a $15.2 billion deficit, things are bound to get worse. Among other proposals for a deficit fix has been an increase in already high state income taxes. Califonria's rate of 9.3% comes in 2nd only to Vermont. Higher state taxes could impose a major drag on a key component of the US economy.
3. India inflation hits 11%
India's wholesale inflation rose to 11% Year over Year. This is far higher than last week's reading of 8.75%. Unlike many other countries, India tracks inflation by tracking the wholesale price of 435 goods.
India is facing a very difficult period, as they have had to cut fuel subsidies by 10% and and just last week the central bank increased short-term borrowing rates from 7.75% to 8%.
The Sensex exchange is down 30% this year since peaking at 21,206.80 in January. The index closed at 14,571.29 Friday.
IMF, India, inflation, GDP, jobs report
G7 / IMF Roundup - Regulatory Reform, Forex Monitoring, IMF Reform, Private Bank Push
Apr 12, 2008
In the first day of G7 meetings - the group passed reforms recommended by the Financial Stability Forum, Monitoring of forex markets, and US + Canada pushed for more innovation from private bankers.
The G7 meeting was kicked off by the group agreeing to a plan from the Financial Stability Forum. The FSF, composed of central bankers and regulators, had finished an 8 month study into the internal failings of credit markets.
The FSF's recommendations included calls for improvements to credit rating agencies, greater oversight, improved transparency, and improvements to tools available when credit problems do arise.
Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson called on the IMF to increase surveillance of the challenges in the forex market. Paulson stressed that "currencies... not set by market forces in deep, liquid markets" need precise analytics.
Mr. Paulson also continued his regular push for IMF reform. Paulson has long pushed for shrinking the board by 4 seats, from 24 to 20.
On another front, the US Treasury Department hosted a dinner Friday for private banks, urging them to match the recent vigor of the central banks.
Read more at CNBC, 2nd CNBC Story, and the BBC
IMF, G7
Weekend Meeting - G7, IMF, World Bank
Apr 11, 2008
Hello everyone. While today's GE numbers and news of Lehman tapping into their new cash may lead the market lower next week, I think the big news is happening in Washington DC. Officials from the G7, IMF, and World Bank will be meeting to discuss the global credit crunch, rising commodities, and forex. Stay tuned for updates!
Chuck E Cash
IMF, G7, World Bank
IMF Cuts Global Growth Forecasts
Apr 9, 2008
The IMF reduced its' global growth forecast to 3.7% in 2008 and 2009. That is 1.25% lower than gobal 2007 growth.
The IMF forecasts UK growth at 1.6% for 2008 and 2009, that is below the Treasury forecast of 2% and 2.5%.
The IMF is forecasting a "mild recession" in the US in first half of 2008. and a slow rebound from the second half of 2008 through at least 2009.
Additionally, the IMF forecasts continued credit problems resulting from over valued housing in the US, UK, Spain, and Ireland.
IMF 2008 Global Forecasts
United Kingdom: 1.6%
Eurozone: 1.4%
United States: 0.5%
Read more at BBC
IMF
