ISM Posts on Forex Blog
ISM Boosts Greenback, Portends NFP Drop?
Jul 1, 2008
The ISM beat market expectations today, as PMI came in at 50.2 vs 48.0 expected.
The last time the report came in above 50 (the line between contraction and growth) was January 2008.
Markets reacted positively, with the DJIA up around 100 pts. The market had started the short trading week down 160 points.
The sentiment carried over to the currencies, as the Pound dropped below the 2.00 rate reached overnight.
Market participants would be wise to take caution with this report. Prices are up sharply - since October 07 the report has risen from a reading of 63 to 91.5. That is by far the largest move in any of the 10 components over a similar period.
Additionally, Employment came in at 43.7, nearly 2 points off May's reading of 45.5. That may spell trouble for Thursday's Non Farm Payroll report. The NFP will be released at 8:30am est, 45 minutes after the ECB meeting. US Average Hourly Earning will be release at the same time.
If the EURUSD is to break the 1.58 resistance that has held sway since March, Thursday seems to be the day.
Table of ISM Data since the markets peaked in October.
| Jun | May | Apr | Mar | Feb | Jan | Dec | Nov | Oct | |
| PMI | 50.2 | 49.6 | 48.6 | 48.6 | 48.3 | 50.7 | 48.4 | 50.0 | 50.4 |
| New Orders | 49.6 | 49.7 | 46.5 | 46.5 | 49.1 | 49.5 | 46.9 | 52.5 | 52.8 |
| Production | 51.5 | 51.2 | 49.1 | 48.7 | 50.7 | 55.2 | 48.6 | 51.3 | 50.1 |
| Employment | 43.7 | 45.5 | 45.4 | 49.2 | 46.0 | 47.1 | 48.7 | 48.4 | 51.8 |
| Supllier Deliveries | 55.1 | 53.7 | 54.0 | 53.6 | 50.1 | 52.8 | 52.6 | 51.5 | 50.7 |
| Inventories | 51.2 | 48.0 | 48.1 | 44.9 | 45.4 | 49.1 | 45.4 | 46.4 | 46.5 |
| Customers' Inventories | 55.0 | 47.0 | 45.0 | 51.0 | 49.0 | 49.5 | 51.5 | 49.0 | 54.0 |
| Prices | 91.5 | 87.0 | 84.5 | 83.5 | 75.5 | 76.0 | 68.0 | 67.5 | 63.0 |
| Backlog of Orders | 47.5 | 46.0 | 51.5 | 47.5 | 45.0 | 44.0 | 43.0 | 41.5 | 46.0 |
| Exports | 58.5 | 59.5 | 57.5 | 56.5 | 56.0 | 58.5 | 52.5 | 58.5 | 57.0 |
| Imports | 46.0 | 49.5 | 48.0 | 45.0 | 47.5 | 52.5 | 48.0 | 47.5 | 47.5 |
inflation, ISM, PMI
FX Calendar: June 2 - June 6
Jun 1, 2008
After a couple weeks of see-saw data from the Eurozone and US, the FX market is looking for a definitive direction this week. US Reports will likely dominate Forex headlines. US Employment numbers on Wednesday (ADP) and Friday (Non Farm payrolls) have the potential to be major movers.
The European Central bank and Bank of England announce rates Thursday. Both are expected to remain flat.
Monday June 2
4:30am est - UK Mortgage Approvals (expect 65k, +1k)
10:00am est - US ISM Manufacturing (expect 48.5, -0.1)
Tuesday June 3
5:00am est - Eurozone MoM PPI (expect 6.1%, +0.4%)
7:01pm est - UK Consumer Confidence (expect 67, -3)
7:15pm est - Japan Capital Spending (expect -9.8%, -2.1)
Wednesday June 4
4:00am est - Eurozone Composite PMI (expect flat at 51.1)
5:00am est - Eurozone Retail Sales (expect 0.2%, +0.6%)
6:00am est - UK PMI Services (expect 50.5%, +0.1%)
8:15am est - US ADP Employment Change (expect -30k, -40k)
10:00am est - ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite (expect 51, -1)
Thursday June 5
7:00am est - BOE Rates (expect unchanged at 5%)
7:45am est - ECB Rates (expect unchanged at 4%)
Friday June 6
8:30am est - Non Farm payroll (expect -51k, -71k)
8:30am est - Unemployment Rate (expect 5.1%, -0.1%)
Bank of England, ECB, PPI, interest rates, jobs report, ISM, housing, upcoming reports, consumer confidence
ISM: US Service Sector Growing
May 5, 2008
In a new report released today, the service sector grew unexpectedly in April. The ISM non-manufacturing index came in at 52.0 in April, vs an expected 49.1. A reading of 50 or above indicates growth.
This comes on the heels of Friday's better than expected job report. Dan Meckstroth of the Manufacturers Alliance commented that "It fits with a scenario of a very mild recession"
Read more at USA Today
ISM, USD
