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Forex Calendar Aug 10 - Aug 15
Aug 9, 2008
The theme for this week in forex trading will be international GDP, CPI and trade balance reports. In all, continuing global economic deterioration could mean positive gains for the US Dollar.
Tuesday morning has several UK reports which may be Pound negative.
Tuesday night has 3 key reports from Japan - Trade Balance, GDP, and GDP annualized.
Thursday morning is laden with Euro-zone reports, including GDP and CPI for Germany (2am) France (2:45am) and the entire region (5am).
Sunday August 10
9:30pm Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Statement
Monday August 11
4am Italy Consumer Price Index MoM (expect 0.5%, previous 0.5%)
4:30am UK July Producer Price Index Output Core MoM (expect 0.4%, previous 0.3%)
4:30am UK July Producer Price Index Output Core YoY (expect 6.5%, previous 6.4%)
4:30am UK Trade Balance (expect -£4.20. billion , previous -£4.25 billion )
8:30am Canada June Housing Starts (expect 0.1%, previous 0%)
7pm UK RICS July House Price Survey (expect -90%, previous -88%)
7:50pm Japan July Corporate Price Index MoM (expect 0.8%, previous 0.8%)
7:50pm Japan July Corporate Price Index MoM (expect 5.7%, previous 5.6%)
9:30pm National Australia Bank Business Survey
Tuesday August 12
2:45am France June Current Account
2:45am France July Consumer Price Index MoM (expect -0.2%, previous +0.4%)
2:45am France July Consumer Price Index YoY (expect 3.7%, previous 3.6%)
4:30am UK July Consumer Price Index MoM (expect -0.2%, previous +0.7%)
4:30am UK July Consumer Price Index YoY (expect 4.2%, previous 3.8%)
4:30am UK July Core Consumer Price Index YoY (expect 1.7%, previous 1.6%)
8:30am US June Trade Balance (expect -$61.9 billion, previous -$59.8 billion)
6:45pm New Zealand Q2 Producer Prices
7:50pm Japan June Trade Balance (expect ¥293.6 billion, previous ¥529.4 billion)
7:50pm Japan Q2 GDP (expect -0.6%, previous 1.0%)
7:50pm Japan Q2 GDP Annualized (expect -2.3%, previous 4.0%)
Wednesday August 13
5:30am Bank of England Quarterly Inflation
8:30am US July Retail Sales (expect 0.4%, previous 0.1%)
8:30am US July Retail Sales excluding Autos (expect 0.7%, previous 0.8%)
10:35am US Crude Inventories
9pm Australia Consumer Inflation Expectation
Thursday August 14
2am Germany Q2 GDP (expect -0.8%, previous 1.5%)
2am Germany July Consumer Price Index MoM (0.6%, previous 0.6%)
2am Germany July Consumer Price Index YoY (3.3%, previous 3.3%)
2:45am France Q2 GDP (expect 0.1%, previous 0.5%)
2:45am France Q2 Non Farm Payrolls (expect 0.2%, previous 0.4%)
5am Euro-zone GDP (expect -0.2%, previous 0.7%)
5am Euro-zone July Consumer Price Index MoM (expect -0.1%, previous 0.4%)
5am Euro-zone July Consumer Price Index YoY (expect 4.1%, previous 4.0%)
8:30am US July Consumer Price Index MoM (expect 0.4%, previous 1.1%)
8:30am US July Consumer Price Index YoY (expect 5.2%, previous 5.0%)
8:30am US July Core Consumer Price Index MoM (expect 0.2%, previous 0.3%)
8:30am US July Core Consumer Price Index YoY (expect 2.4%, previous 2.4%)
6:45pm New Zealand June Retail Sales MoM
Friday August 15
9am US Treasury International Capital (TIC)
10am US August Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Confidence (expect 62.0, previous 61.2)
10:30am US Chicago Fed President Charles Evans to Speak on Economic Outlook
Euro, GDP, CPI, Yen, upcoming reports, Pound
Forex Preview August 3 - August 8
Aug 3, 2008
The core theme of the week will be rate decisions from 4 central banks and attached commentary.
Australia and US bank rates are declared on Tuesday.
On Thursday, banks in Great Britain and the Eurozone announce rate decisions.
All 4 banks are expected to remain on hold. The real market movement will come from associated statements
- The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is apt to remain confident in economic growth and focus on inflationary concerns.
- the US FOMC is likely to focus on a struggling economy with inflation a secondary concern that can be dealt with later
- The Bank of England will presumably highlight a faltering economy, indicating rate cuts may be needed sooner rather than later. If their is one bank that surprises with rate movement this week, the BOE will be it with a rate cut.
- The ECB can be a wild card. Inflation remains double their mandate target. Yet, signs of a Eurozone slowdown are spreading like wildfire. With oil pulling back, their is reason to believe Trichet is going to stress a wait and see approach. However, hawkish comments on inflationary concerns remain a possibility.
Aside from the central bank action, markets are also likely to move on unemployment reports out of New Zealand on Wednesday, and Switzerland, Canada on Friday. The New Zealand report is the only significant data coming out on Wednesday, and as such may gain unusual attention.
Three other events to watch for are:
- the US PCE on Monday (I think their is potential for upside surprise).
- Eurozone Retail Sales and US ISM Services ahead of the FOMC rate decision on Tuesday
Sunday August 3
9:30pm Australia House Price Index (expect -1.3% QoQ, 8% YoY)
11pm New Zealand Commodity Price Index
Monday August 4
5am Eurozone PPI (expect 0.8% MoM, 7.9% YoY)
8:30am United States Personal Consumption Expenditure (expect 0.4% MoM, 2.2% YoY)
Tuesday August 5
12:30am Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision (expect hold at 7.25%)
4:30am Great Britain Industrial Production (expect 01% MoM, -1.2% YoY)
5am Eurozone Retail Sales (expect -0.6% MoM, -1.3% YoY)
10am ISM Services (expect 51.0 from 48.2, signaling growth)
2:15pm United States Fed Rate Decision (expect hold at 2%)
7pm Great Britain Consumer Confidence
Wednesday August 6
10:35am United States Crude Inventories
6:45pm New Zealand Employment Report (expect 0.2% QoQ, -0.6% YoY)
6:45pm New Zealand Unemployment Rate (expect 3.8%)
Thursday August 7
2am German Trade Balance (expect €15.5 billion)
2:45am French Trade Balance (expect €-4.6 billion)
7am Great Britain Rate Decision (expect hold at 5%)
7:45am European Central Bank Rate Decision
8:30am ECB President Trichet Press Conference
10am US Pending Home Sales (expect -1.3%)
Friday August 8
1:45am Switzerland Unemployment Rate (expect 2.3%)
4am Italy GDP (expect 0.0% QoQ, 0.3% YoY)
7am Canada Unemployment Rate (expect 6.2%)
Bank of England, ECB, European Central Bank, BOE, jobs report, RBA, upcoming reports, Fed, FOMC
FX Preview July 20 - July 25
Jul 19, 2008
This is a light weak for market data, with the most interesting reports coming out of:
Australia (PPI on Sunday, CPI Tuesday)
Canada (Retail Sales Tuesday and PPI Wednesday)
UK (BOE minutes Wednesday, Retail Sales Thursday, and Q2 GDP Friday)
Be careful getting long AUDUSD as the breakdown in oil and gold could spell trouble for the commodity based Aussie. I would stay long AUDNZD as that play is based on the comparative directions of the 2 economies.
Earnings from several regional banks and a possible diplomatic deal with Iran could be the biggest market movers for the USD.
I will be taking the next week off. Have fun trading!
Sunday July 20
9:30pm Australian PPI (expect 1.6% QoQ, 5.3% YoY)
Monday July 21
3:15am Swiss Producer and Import Prices (expect 0.5% MoM, 4.4% YoY)
time not listed Bank Of America Earnings (expect 0.53 a share)
Tuesday July 22
2:15am Swiss June Trade Balance (expect 1.6 billion)
4am Italy Trade Balance
8:10m US treasurer Hank Paulson Speaks
8:30am Canadian Retail Sales (expect 0.5% MoM)
9:30pm Australian CPI (expect 1.3% QoQ, 4.3% YoY)
time not listed Bank of Florida earnings (expect -0.01 per share)
after market close Etrade earnings (expect -0.14 per share)
after market close Washington Mutual earnings (expect -1.05 a share)
Wednesday July 23
4am Italy Retail Sales (expect 0% MoM, -0.4% YoY)
4:30am Bank of England minutes from last policy meeting
7am Canadian PPI (expect 0.5% MoM, 2.9% YoY)
7am Canadian PPI Core (expect 0.1% MoM, 1.6% YoY)
10:30am US Crude Inventories
5pm Reserve Bank of New Zealand Rate Decision (expect hold at 8.25%)
Thursday July 24
4am German IFO Survey (look for weakness mirroring the ZEW Survey last week)
4am Eurozone Current Account
4:30am UK Retail Sales (expect -2.2% MoM, 4.4% YoY)
10am US Existing Home Sales (expect 4.97 million)
7:30pm Japan CPI July
Friday July 25
4:30am UK Q2 GDP (expect 0.2% QoQ, 1.6% YoY)
8:30am US Durable Orders (expect 0%)
10am US New Home Sales (expect 507k)
10am US Michigan July Consumer Sentiment Finalized (expect 56.3)
time not supplied T Rowe Price earnings (expect 0.60 per share)
BOE, CAD, AUD, upcoming reports, RBNZ, Ifo, Pound
FX Preview July 13 - July 18
Jul 12, 2008
The economic calendar is chokingly full of events this week,
The early part of the week will be dominated by CPI reports, with data coming out from New Zealand (Mon) Italy, UK (Tue), Germany, France, the Eurozone, and US (Wed).
The back half of the week will be dominated by US bank earnings reports from JPMorgan Chase, Merrill Lynch (Thu), and Citigroup (Fri).
Monday night may see some big movement in the AUDNZD, with New Zealand's Consumer Prices and the RBOA minutes reported 15 minutes apart.
Sunday July 13
6:45pm New Zealand Retail Sales (expect -0.1% MoM, 0.5% MoM excluding auto)
11pm Bank of Japan Rate decision (expect hold at 0.5%)
Monday July 14
4:30am UK PPI (expect 2.6% MoM, 29% YoY)
10:00am Fed Governors Vote on Mortgage Rules in Open Meeting (this is a set of new rules crafted by the Fed. The policy is for lending hundreds of billions of dollars to banks and other financial entities to ease a severe credit crunch. It is unclear how big a role the recently confirmed Elizabeth Duke, a Virginia banker with an insider perspective, played in crafting this policy.)
8:45pm New Zealand Consumer Prices
9:30pm Bank of Australia Minutes from July Meeting
Tuesday July 15
4:00am Italy CPI (expect 0.4% MoM, 3.8% YoY)
4:30am UK CPI (expect 0.4% MoM, 3.6% YoY)
5:00am German ZEW Survey (expect -55)
8:30am US PPI (expect 1.3% MoM, 8.7% YoY)
8:30am US Empire Manufacturing Index (expect -5)
8:30am Retail Sales (expect 0.5%, 1.0% excluding auto)
10:00am Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies before the Senate
11:00pm Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Stevens Speaks
unknown time First Mariner Bank (FMAR) reports earnings (expect -0.21 a share, stock has plunged since Chuck Schumer's infamous letter)
Wednesday July 16
2:00am Germany CPI (expect 0.3% MoM, 3.3% YoY)
2:45am France CPI (expect 0.4% MoM, 3.6% YoY)
5:00am Eurozone CPI (expect 0.4% MoM, 4.0% YoY)
before 8:30am, Wells Fargo (WFC) reports 9expect 0.50 a share)
8:30am US CPI (expect 0.7% MoM, 4.5% YoY)
8:30am US CPI ex food and energy (expect 0.2% MoM, 2.3% YoY)
10:30am Crude Inventories
10:00am Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies before the House
Thursday July 17
6:30 am JPMorgan Chase (JPM announces earnings (expect 0.47 a share)
before 8:30am MGIC Investment Corp (MTG) reports earnings (expect -0.61 a share)
10:00am US Philly Fed Index (expect -15.0)
4:00pm Merrill Lynch (MER) reports earnings (expect -1.91 a share,
Friday July 18
5:00am Eurozone Trade Balance (expect -€1.0 billion)
before 8:30am Citigroup (C) reports earnings (expect -0.59 a share)
ZEW Survey, CPI, Credit Crunch, upcoming reports
Forex Outlook July 6 - July 11
Jul 6, 2008
Welcome to another fun filled week of forex trading.
This is the week of trade reports! Germany, France, UK, and Japan report Wednesday. Canada and the US report on Friday.
Beyond those reports, the week is largely dominated by speaking opportunities. Fed officials have 3 major speaking engagements, and the Bank of England Rate decision comes on Thursday.
G8 Summit July 7 - 9
Sun July 6
9:30pm German Wholesale Price Index (expect 1.0% MoM, 9.0% YoY)
Mon July 7
4:30am UK Industrial Production (expect -0.1% MoM, -0.7% YoY)
11am US SF Fed President Janet Yellen Speaks on Economic Outlook. She is considered an inflation dove.
Tue July 8
8:30am US Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke Speaks on Mortgage Lending
10am US Pending Home Sales for May (expect -2.5% MoM)
2:30 pm US Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker speaks on Economic Outlook. He is considered an inflation hawk. This was demonstrated when he dissented with the FOMC in 4 straight meetings in 2006 by voting for rate increases.
7pm UK Consumer Confidence
Wed July 9
2am German Trade Balance for May (expect €18 billion, -€0.7 billion from previous)
2:45am French Trade Balance for May (expect -€4 billion, -€0.3 billion from previous)
4:30am UK Trade Balance (expect -£4 billion)
5am Eurozone Q1 GDP Finalized (expect 0.8%, same as preliminary)
10:30am US Crude Inventories
7:50pm Japan Trade Balance for May (expect ¥487 billion )
10:30pm Australian Unemployment
Thu Jul 10
7am UK Bank of England Rate Decision (expect hold at 5%)
10am US Fed Chief Bernanke and Treasurer Henry Paulson testify before Congress
Fri July 11
7am Canada Employment (expect +10k)
8:30am Canada International Trade (excludes services) (expect 5 billion)
8:30am US Trade Balance (expect -$61 billion)
Bank of England, trade balance, Hank Paulson, upcoming reports, Fed
Forex Events for June 29 - July 5
Jun 29, 2008
This could be the week the Euro breaks 1.60. A score of data out of Europe, the Thursday's rate decision, and US Non Farm Payrolls could give it the final push.
A list of the forex events likely to move markets this week.
All times listed in eastern standard time.
MoM = month over month
YoY = Year over Year
Monday June 30
4am Eurozone May PPI (expect 0.9% MoM, 6.8% YoY)
4:30am Great Britain May Mortgage Approvals (expect 51k)
5am June Eurozone CPI (expect 3.9% YoY)
5am Italy CPI
Tuesday July 1
12:30am RBA Rate Decision (expect hold w/hawkish statement)
10am US June ISM (expect 49.0)
Wednesday July 2
9:30pm Australian Trade Balance (expect -950 million)
Thursday July 3
1:45am Swiss CPI (expect 0.3% MoM, 3.1% YoY)
7am Bank of England Rates Decision (expect hold)
7:45am ECB Rates Decision (expect 25bps hike, watch commentary)
8:30am US June Non Farm Payrolls (expect -55k)
Friday
US markets closed for holiday
ECB, Euro, interest rates, trade balance, jobs report, RBA, rate hike, upcoming reports
Forex Events June 22 - June 25
Jun 22, 2008
This week will be dominated by US data. The key mover may be comments from the Fed rate decision at 2:15pm est Wednesday.
Events Monday and Friday are clearly Euro positive, Greenback negative. Watch for the Euro to test the 1.5800 resistance on Monday. If it finally breaks the range, we could see an end to the sideways trading of the last few months as the ECB is definitely going to hike rates July 3rd.
New Zealand and Japan, 2 key parts of the carry trade, report significant data late Wednesday evening. Surprises on either side could be an omen for future carry trade volatility.
All times eastern standard time
Monday June 23
4am German IFO - Current and Expectations
4am Euro-zone PMI Services (expect 50.4)
4am Euro-zone PMI Manufacturing (expect 50.2)
Tuesday June 24
4am Swiss UBS Consumption Indicator
9am Case Shiller Home Price Index (expect 168.8)
10am US Consumer Confidence (expect 56.7, a 16 year low)
7:50pm Japan Trade balance (exclude services)
Wednesday June 25
8:30am US Durable Good Orders (expect -0.9% excluding transport)
10am US New Home sales (expect 530k, a flat reading)
2:15pm Fed Rate Decision (expect hold at 2%)
6:45pm New Zealand Current Account (expect -7.5%)
Thursday June 26
7:30am US fed Vice Chairman Speaks at ECB
8:30am US Q1 GDP finalized (expect 1.2% from initial 0.6%, thats big folks. Note, upgraded from 0.6% to 0.9% previously)
10am US Existing Home Sales
6:45pm New Zealand Q1 GDP (expect 2.1%)
6:45pm New Zealand May Trade Balance (expect +150million)
7:30pm Japan CPI
7:50pm Japan Retail Trade (Domestic)
Friday June 27
2:50am France GDP (expect 2.2%)
4am Euro-zone Current Account
4:30am Great Britain Q1 GDP (expect 2.5%)
10:00am US university of Michigan Consumer Confidence (expect 56.8)
European Central Bank, CPI, Carry Trade, trade balance, housing, upcoming reports, consumer confidence, durable goods, Fed, IFO
Forex Events June 15 - June 20
Jun 15, 2008
Below is a summary of the major forex news of the week.
Cash believes the biggest events may have already occurred - a) the G8 did not intervene in the forex marketplace as some had speculated and b) flooding in the US Midwest has reduced corn and soybean crops significantly (see Bloomberg).
All times listed in eastern standard time
Monday June 16
5am
Eurozone CPI MoM (expect +0.6%)
Eurozone CPI YoY (expect +3.6%)
Eurozone Core CPI YoY (expect +1.8%)
8:30am
US Empire(NY) Manufacturing (expect -1.50
10am
Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks before Senate
Lehman Brothers Reports Q2 Earnings (Cash expects negative news reminding everyone of last years credit crunch)
1pm
US Fed Lacker Speaks
9:30pm
Bank of Australia Minutes for June
Tuesday June 17
4:30am
UK CPI MoM (expect +0.4%)
UK CPI YoY (expect +3.2%)
UK Core CPI YoY (expect +1.5%)
5:00am
German ZEW Survey
Eurozone Trade Balance for April (expect -1.5 billion)
8:30am
US Housing Starts (expect 980k)
US Building Permits (expect 960k)
Wednesday June 18
4:30am
Bank of England Minutes for June
11am
Morgan Stanley Q2 Earnings
Thursday June 19
4:30am
UK Retail sales YoY (expect 4.1%)
UK Retail Sales MoM (expect -0.1%)
7am
Canadian CPI YoY (expect 1.9%)
Canadian CPI MoM (expect a sizzling 0.6%)
Canadian Core CPI YoY (expect 1.4%)
Canadian Core CPI MoM (expect 0.3%)
10am
US Philly Fed (expect a rise to -11.4)
Bank of England, BOE, CPI, RBA, Reserve Bank of Australia, minutes, upcoming reports, Fed
US Economic Calendar June 9 - June 13
Jun 8, 2008
Monday June 9
Pending Home Sales (expect 82.6, down 0.4)
NY Fed Governor Timothy Geithner Speaks About Economy (8:15am est)
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and Vice Chairman Donald Kohn Speak About Inflation (3:15pm)
Tuesday June 10
Manpower Employment Outlook for Q3
Imports (expect $209.1 billion, +$2.4 billion)
Exports (expect $149.7 billion, +$1.2 billion)
Trade Balance (expect -$59.4 billion, +1.2 billion)
Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher Speaks
Wednesday June 11
Quarterly Services for Q1
Beige Book for June 24-25 FOMC meeting
Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn speaks
Fed Governor Randolph Kroszner speaks
Thursday June 12
Retails Sales (expect -0.3%)
Retail Sales excluding Auto (expect +0.2%)
Friday June 13
CPI (expect +0.2%)
Core Index (expect +0.1% to 2.2%)
University of Michigan Preliminary Consumer Sentiment (expect 55)
CPI, trade balance, housing, upcoming reports, consumer confidence, Fed
FX Calendar: June 2 - June 6
Jun 1, 2008
After a couple weeks of see-saw data from the Eurozone and US, the FX market is looking for a definitive direction this week. US Reports will likely dominate Forex headlines. US Employment numbers on Wednesday (ADP) and Friday (Non Farm payrolls) have the potential to be major movers.
The European Central bank and Bank of England announce rates Thursday. Both are expected to remain flat.
Monday June 2
4:30am est - UK Mortgage Approvals (expect 65k, +1k)
10:00am est - US ISM Manufacturing (expect 48.5, -0.1)
Tuesday June 3
5:00am est - Eurozone MoM PPI (expect 6.1%, +0.4%)
7:01pm est - UK Consumer Confidence (expect 67, -3)
7:15pm est - Japan Capital Spending (expect -9.8%, -2.1)
Wednesday June 4
4:00am est - Eurozone Composite PMI (expect flat at 51.1)
5:00am est - Eurozone Retail Sales (expect 0.2%, +0.6%)
6:00am est - UK PMI Services (expect 50.5%, +0.1%)
8:15am est - US ADP Employment Change (expect -30k, -40k)
10:00am est - ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite (expect 51, -1)
Thursday June 5
7:00am est - BOE Rates (expect unchanged at 5%)
7:45am est - ECB Rates (expect unchanged at 4%)
Friday June 6
8:30am est - Non Farm payroll (expect -51k, -71k)
8:30am est - Unemployment Rate (expect 5.1%, -0.1%)
Bank of England, ECB, PPI, interest rates, jobs report, ISM, housing, upcoming reports, consumer confidence
A Bundle of US Data This Week May Move Dollar Trades
May 27, 2008
The US will see a number of potentially trade driving reports in this holiday shortened week.
On Tuesday May 27
The S&P Case-Shiller Index at 9am est.
At 10am, New Home Sales and consumer confidence will be reported.
Wednesday May 28
Durable goods will be reported at 8:30am est, before equity markets open.
Thursday May 29
Revised Q1 GDP and weekly jobless claims are reported at 8:30am est.
Also, Fed Chief Ben Bernanke speaks at 2:30pm in Basel Switzerland. And Fed Vice Chairman Kohn talks at 7pm.
On Friday May 30
Consumer sentiment will be reported at 10am est
Other notable forex movers will be the German Unemployment numbers May 29 and Canada's Q1 GDP.
In light volume May 26, the EURUSD held above the $1.5750 support. Given the upbeat comments from the Germans last week, and the negative mood from the US Fed, this week's data has the potential for sending the EURUSD above the $1.58 resistance - we shall see.
GDP, jobs report, housing, Bernanke, upcoming reports, consumer confidence, Fed
