IFO Posts on Forex Blog
Euro Drops on Weak PMI, IFO
Jun 23, 2008
DailyFX nailed the IFO numbers spot on, but PMI comes in weaker than anyone expected.
Euro-zone PMI came in at contraction levels, sharply lower than expected.
Services slumped to 49.5 (from 50.6 in May, vs expected 50.5)
Manufacturing slipped to 49.1 (from 50.6 in May, vs expected 50.2)
Composite fell to 49.5 (from 51.1 in May, vs expected 50.7)
The German IFO survey came in with the following numbers
Climate 101.3
Situation 108.3
Expectations 94.7
At 7;30am est the Euro is lower against most of the majors.
EURUSD 1.5516 (-0.0101, -0.65%)
GBPEUR 1.2628 (-0.0007, -0.06%)
EURAUD 1.63130 (-0.00310, -0.19%)
EURNZD 2.0477 (-0.0004, -0.02%)
EURCHF 1.6202 (+0.0035, 0.22%)
Read the IFO survey
EUR, IFO, PMI
Forex Events June 22 - June 25
Jun 22, 2008
This week will be dominated by US data. The key mover may be comments from the Fed rate decision at 2:15pm est Wednesday.
Events Monday and Friday are clearly Euro positive, Greenback negative. Watch for the Euro to test the 1.5800 resistance on Monday. If it finally breaks the range, we could see an end to the sideways trading of the last few months as the ECB is definitely going to hike rates July 3rd.
New Zealand and Japan, 2 key parts of the carry trade, report significant data late Wednesday evening. Surprises on either side could be an omen for future carry trade volatility.
All times eastern standard time
Monday June 23
4am German IFO - Current and Expectations
4am Euro-zone PMI Services (expect 50.4)
4am Euro-zone PMI Manufacturing (expect 50.2)
Tuesday June 24
4am Swiss UBS Consumption Indicator
9am Case Shiller Home Price Index (expect 168.8)
10am US Consumer Confidence (expect 56.7, a 16 year low)
7:50pm Japan Trade balance (exclude services)
Wednesday June 25
8:30am US Durable Good Orders (expect -0.9% excluding transport)
10am US New Home sales (expect 530k, a flat reading)
2:15pm Fed Rate Decision (expect hold at 2%)
6:45pm New Zealand Current Account (expect -7.5%)
Thursday June 26
7:30am US fed Vice Chairman Speaks at ECB
8:30am US Q1 GDP finalized (expect 1.2% from initial 0.6%, thats big folks. Note, upgraded from 0.6% to 0.9% previously)
10am US Existing Home Sales
6:45pm New Zealand Q1 GDP (expect 2.1%)
6:45pm New Zealand May Trade Balance (expect +150million)
7:30pm Japan CPI
7:50pm Japan Retail Trade (Domestic)
Friday June 27
2:50am France GDP (expect 2.2%)
4am Euro-zone Current Account
4:30am Great Britain Q1 GDP (expect 2.5%)
10:00am US university of Michigan Consumer Confidence (expect 56.8)
European Central Bank, CPI, Carry Trade, trade balance, housing, upcoming reports, consumer confidence, durable goods, Fed, IFO
